Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.41 – 16.16

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.5 ±9.8

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 32.21Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 16.95Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 51.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.6 ±12.2

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 1.47Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 19.3Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -4.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4734, 2969, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4734, 2969, 5572

Auto

20.7 21%

Teleop

49.1 50%

Endgame

29.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2657, 4219, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2657, 4219, 11169

Auto

12.9 100%

Teleop

7.0 58%

Endgame

-7.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.4pts

Blue projected score16.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.3
Score range: 1–115
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 82.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.5Season APEX158.6

20.7Auto12.9

49.1Teleop7

29.2Endgame-7.8

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	65	28
endgame	24	26
foul	0	0
total	112	74

Result

Final score

112 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree