Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.6 – 140.19

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±11

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 6.11Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 30.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 8.6Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.2 ±11.2

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 56.09Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 82.04Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 2.06Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9136, 4734, 5726

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9136, 4734, 5726

Auto

18.2 43%

Teleop

14.0 33%

Endgame

10.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3735, 3035, 4717

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3735, 3035, 4717

Auto

34.5 26%

Teleop

76.2 57%

Endgame

23.3 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.6pts

Blue projected score140.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.6
Score range: 28–158
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.6Season APEX420.2

18.2Auto34.5

14Teleop76.2

10.2Endgame23.3

34Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	34
teleop	0	61
endgame	1	12
foul	0	0
total	22	107

Result

Final score

22 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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