Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.72 – 38.76

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±11

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 36.9Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 20.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 55.39Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.8 ±12.2

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 3.18Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 21.86Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 13.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9444, 6974, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 6974, 3735

Auto

29.1 27%

Teleop

49.8 45%

Endgame

30.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4717, 6357, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4717, 6357, 4610

Auto

7.9 25%

Teleop

9.0 29%

Endgame

14.5 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score38.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74
Score range: 24–128
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 80.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.6Season APEX160.8

29.1Auto7.9

49.8Teleop9

30.7Endgame14.5

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	35	21
endgame	6	22
foul	0	0
total	65	55

Result

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree