Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

59.01 – 17.65

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.5 ±13.9

9419VULCAN

Season APEX 15.9Event APEX 10.36Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 12.4Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 36.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±11.7

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 22.86Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -0.45Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -4.76Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9419, 8507, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9419, 8507, 4734

Auto

14.8 25%

Teleop

22.6 38%

Endgame

22.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3481, 9658, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3481, 9658, 11169

Auto

15.7 88%

Teleop

9.1 51%

Endgame

-7.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59pts

Blue projected score17.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.4
Score range: 4–73
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 80.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.5Season APEX222.6

14.8Auto15.7

22.6Teleop9.1

22.1Endgame-7

43Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	10
teleop	14	11
endgame	12	23
foul	0	0
total	49	44

Result

Final score

49 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree