Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.98 – 192.81

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±15.3

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 4.28Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6155ElektraBots

Season APEX 16.9Event APEX -1.85Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 17.55Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.9 ±10

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 1.61Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 178.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 12.67Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4717, 6155, 1745

/ 100 compat

Projected

20 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4717, 6155, 1745

Auto

10.5 72%

Teleop

-1.6 0%

Endgame

5.7 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11309, 6369, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 6369, 2969

Auto

23.0 12%

Teleop

119.5 63%

Endgame

45.9 24%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20pts

Blue projected score192.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.8
Score range: 6–207
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 78.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.2Season APEX379.9

10.5Auto23

-1.6Teleop119.5

5.7Endgame45.9

98Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	11	134
endgame	26	74
foul	0	0
total	51	234

Result

Final score

51 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree