Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.03 – 45.79

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 119.8 ±12.7

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 9.56Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 12.03Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 16.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±11.7

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 8.13Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 46.47Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -8.81Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8732, 3240, 4219

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8732, 3240, 4219

Auto

11.4 35%

Teleop

30.4 93%

Endgame

-9.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8507, 3735, 9658

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8507, 3735, 9658

Auto

21.2 51%

Teleop

18.1 43%

Endgame

2.4 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38pts

Blue projected score45.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 24–60
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 76.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

119.8Season APEX245.1

11.4Auto21.2

30.4Teleop18.1

-9Endgame2.4

13Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	24
teleop	22	55
endgame	12	30
foul	10	0
total	52	109

Result

Final score

52 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree