Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.54 – 235.95

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±11

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 19.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 30.7Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 4.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.1 ±9.4

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 37.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 22.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 175.96Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 6357, 10312

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 6357, 10312

Auto

6.7 13%

Teleop

38.4 74%

Endgame

7.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4734, 8088, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4734, 8088, 6369

Auto

53.2 23%

Teleop

132.1 56%

Endgame

49.6 21%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.5pts

Blue projected score236pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.4
Score range: 42–249
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 74.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.1Season APEX488.1

6.7Auto53.2

38.4Teleop132.1

7.1Endgame49.6

39Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	21	139
endgame	13	85
foul	0	15
total	47	260

Result

Final score

47 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree