Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.33 – 42.88

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±13.9

6155ElektraBots

Season APEX 16.9Event APEX 13.42Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 26.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 13.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.9 ±12.2

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 20.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 16.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 6.03Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6155, 9444, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6155, 9444, 8507

Auto

19.7 37%

Teleop

21.9 42%

Endgame

11.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10518, 1745, 3240

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10518, 1745, 3240

Auto

10.1 28%

Teleop

15.1 41%

Endgame

11.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score42.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.4
Score range: 25–71
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX185.9

19.7Auto10.1

21.9Teleop15.1

11Endgame11.2

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	11
teleop	12	17
endgame	9	1
foul	0	10
total	29	39

Result

Final score

29 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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