Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.63 – 62.06

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.2 ±11

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 45.87Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.91Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 23.85Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.6 ±11

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -4.84Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 18.39Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 48.51Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3679, 8114, 1745

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3679, 8114, 1745

Auto

13.0 16%

Teleop

34.4 42%

Endgame

34.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11309, 3481, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 3481, 457

Auto

11.8 18%

Teleop

29.7 46%

Endgame

22.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.6pts

Blue projected score62.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 49–107
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 74.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.2Season APEX276.6

13Auto11.8

34.4Teleop29.7

34Endgame22.5

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	28	58
endgame	27	32
foul	0	0
total	75	109

Result

Final score

75 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree