Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.13 – 0

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.6 ±11

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 36.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -3.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 9.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 87.6 ±16.7

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -9.59Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6155ElektraBots

Season APEX 16.9Event APEX -0.12Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9419VULCAN

Season APEX 15.9Event APEX 8.4Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9444, 11169, 5726

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 11169, 5726

Auto

9.8 28%

Teleop

20.5 58%

Endgame

5.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9136, 6155, 9419

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9136, 6155, 9419

Auto

7.0 100%

Teleop

-6.1 0%

Endgame

2.0 69%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.1pts

Blue projected score-1.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.1
Score range: -14–57
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 72 vs event baseline 75.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.6Season APEX87.6

9.8Auto7

20.5Teleop-6.1

5.2Endgame2

98Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	13
teleop	25	9
endgame	10	2
foul	0	0
total	48	24

Result

Final score

48 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree