Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

28.58 – 7.2

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.4 ±12.8

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 22.39Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -2.65Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 8.84Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 116.7 ±12.7

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 2.8Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 16.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -12.4Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 2657, 4717

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 2657, 4717

Auto

10.3 47%

Teleop

10.7 49%

Endgame

1.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10312, 4610, 9658

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10312, 4610, 9658

Auto

4.5 0%

Teleop

-10.5 100%

Endgame

-4.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.6pts

Blue projected score7.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: -7–43
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 48 vs event baseline 77.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.4Season APEX116.7

10.3Auto4.5

10.7Teleop-10.5

1Endgame-4

21Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	7
teleop	12	17
endgame	5	4
foul	0	0
total	20	28

Result

Final score

20 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree