Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.79 – 106.14

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.9 ±10.7

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 27.96Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 172.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 20.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±9.8

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 59.24Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 19.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 27.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1745, 6369, 6974

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1745, 6369, 6974

Auto

35.7 17%

Teleop

127.7 60%

Endgame

50.4 24%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2582, 4734, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2582, 4734, 3679

Auto

29.2 29%

Teleop

50.8 51%

Endgame

20.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.8pts

Blue projected score106.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.7
Score range: 93–234
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 72.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.9Season APEX385.7

35.7Auto29.2

127.7Teleop50.8

50.4Endgame20.1

54Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	50
teleop	111	110
endgame	57	64
foul	0	0
total	219	224

Result

Final score

219 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree