Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.41 – 89.04

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.7 ±13.5

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 48.38Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9419VULCAN

Season APEX 15.9Event APEX 2.89Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -5.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±9.8

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 22.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 38.33Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 28.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3035, 9419, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3035, 9419, 11169

Auto

17.1 35%

Teleop

34.5 70%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 457, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9140, 457, 9444

Auto

11.4 12%

Teleop

56.1 61%

Endgame

24.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.4pts

Blue projected score89pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 32–102
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 71.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.7Season APEX438.7

17.1Auto11.4

34.5Teleop56.1

-2.6Endgame24.9

114Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	20
teleop	49	81
endgame	6	77
foul	0	0
total	81	178

Result

Final score

81 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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