Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.65 – 63.49

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.5 ±12.7

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 22.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 15.95Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -13.06Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±11.7

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 4.77Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 15.49Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 43.23Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9034, 4219, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9034, 4219, 11309

Auto

8.4 30%

Teleop

9.8 35%

Endgame

10.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9136, 3240, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9136, 3240, 6357

Auto

15.4 23%

Teleop

43.6 65%

Endgame

8.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.7pts

Blue projected score63.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 13–76
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 67 vs event baseline 73.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.5Season APEX165.2

8.4Auto15.4

9.8Teleop43.6

10.2Endgame8.5

52Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	30	1
endgame	3	1
foul	0	5
total	49	18

Result

Final score

49 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree