Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49.44 – 47.41

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±12.8

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 29.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 9.6Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 9.95Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.1 ±12.2

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 33.46Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 9.62Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 4.33Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8088, 4717, 9658

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8088, 4717, 9658

Auto

19.4 43%

Teleop

16.4 36%

Endgame

9.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1745, 8507, 3545

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1745, 8507, 3545

Auto

8.0 21%

Teleop

17.3 44%

Endgame

13.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.4pts

Blue projected score47.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2
Score range: 34–62
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 71.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.3Season APEX221.1

19.4Auto8

16.4Teleop17.3

9.8Endgame13.6

89Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	4	14
endgame	7	3
foul	0	0
total	25	32

Result

Final score

25 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree