Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.69 – 157.95

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±11.6

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 5.94Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 26.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 23.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±10.5

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 116.41Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -0.65Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 42.19Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4610, 4219, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4610, 4219, 3481

Auto

14.9 29%

Teleop

21.7 42%

Endgame

15.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2582, 11309, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2582, 11309, 3561

Auto

28.3 18%

Teleop

83.3 53%

Endgame

44.3 28%

Strengths

· 2582 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.7pts

Blue projected score158pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.3
Score range: 38–176
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.5Season APEX320.8

14.9Auto28.3

21.7Teleop83.3

15.4Endgame44.3

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	18
teleop	6	35
endgame	8	28
foul	5	0
total	29	81

Result

Final score

29 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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