Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.91 – 185.66

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±12.2

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 16.23Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 3.32Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 11.36Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±10.8

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 164.28Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 23.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -2.34Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4219, 9311, 8114

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.9 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4219, 9311, 8114

Auto

11.5 35%

Teleop

13.9 42%

Endgame

7.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6369, 9444, 3240

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 9444, 3240

Auto

33.2 20%

Teleop

99.1 59%

Endgame

35.4 21%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.44 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.9pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.7
Score range: 19–198
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 68.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.7Season APEX405.3

11.5Auto33.2

13.9Teleop99.1

7.8Endgame35.4

145Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	6	173
endgame	5	53
foul	15	0
total	38	258

Result

Final score

38 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree