Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.01 – 14.38

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 0.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±10.5

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 19.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 4.95Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 28.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.7 ±11.6

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 17.58Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 2.77Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -5.97Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9140, 10312, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9140, 10312, 3481

Auto

16.0 39%

Teleop

13.3 33%

Endgame

11.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8732, 9136, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8732, 9136, 11309

Auto

5.6 33%

Teleop

16.6 98%

Endgame

-5.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53pts

Blue projected score14.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.6
Score range: 1–66
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 69 vs event baseline 70.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.2Season APEX113.7

16Auto5.6

13.3Teleop16.6

11.4Endgame-5.2

71Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	8
teleop	32	1
endgame	2	6
foul	0	0
total	54	15

Result

Final score

54 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 0.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree