Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.11 – 54.44

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±11.6

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 28.16Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 21.65Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 8.3Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.8 ±14

9419VULCAN

Season APEX 15.9Event APEX -5.12Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 9.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 49.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3735, 1745, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3735, 1745, 4610

Auto

12.6 28%

Teleop

30.0 67%

Endgame

2.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9419, 5726, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9419, 5726, 5572

Auto

9.1 20%

Teleop

21.6 47%

Endgame

15.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.1pts

Blue projected score54.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 42–70
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 69.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.1Season APEX271.8

12.6Auto9.1

30Teleop21.6

2.2Endgame15.4

57Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	33	35
endgame	51	17
foul	15	0
total	117	66

Result

Final score

117 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree