Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.76 – 41.62

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.5 ±12.2

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -7.33Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 12.69Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 2.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.7 ±11.6

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 18.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 21.27Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 2.22Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11309, 2657, 8114

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 2657, 8114

Auto

10.5 0%

Teleop

-16.4 100%

Endgame

2.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6974, 8732, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6974, 8732, 2969

Auto

12.8 31%

Teleop

21.7 53%

Endgame

6.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score7.8pts

Blue projected score41.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.9
Score range: -5–55
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 70.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.5Season APEX105.7

10.5Auto12.8

-16.4Teleop21.7

2.1Endgame6.6

87Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	5	28
endgame	10	9
foul	0	0
total	29	51

Result

Final score

29 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree