Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

1.49 – 210.03

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.6 ±12.2

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 0.54Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -1.35Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 2.3Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.9 ±9.4

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 158.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 30.75Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 21.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 3240, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

1.5 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 3240, 4610

Auto

7.3 0%

Teleop

-2.7 48%

Endgame

-10.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6369, 3561, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

210 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 3561, 3481

Auto

49.6 24%

Teleop

102.4 50%

Endgame

51.7 25%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.3 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score1.5pts

Blue projected score210pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.5
Score range: -11–222
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 67.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.6Season APEX507.9

7.3Auto49.6

-2.7Teleop102.4

-10.2Endgame51.7

56Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	33
teleop	5	143
endgame	0	60
foul	20	15
total	31	251

Result

Final score

31 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree