Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.44 – 108.42

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.3 ±10.5

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 10.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 45.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 21.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±10.5

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 57.59Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 33.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 17.19Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 2582, 1745

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 2582, 1745

Auto

26.4 38%

Teleop

32.2 47%

Endgame

10.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6357, 4219, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6357, 4219, 9140

Auto

19.0 18%

Teleop

61.1 57%

Endgame

26.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score108.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 65–120
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 64.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.3Season APEX385.5

26.4Auto19

32.2Teleop61.1

10.4Endgame26.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	56	42
endgame	5	19
foul	5	0
total	81	79

Result

Final score

81 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree