Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

48.89 – 2.96

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±11.7

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 1.27Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 11.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 35.79Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 98.1 ±15.3

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX -1.07Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 3.54Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6155ElektraBots

Season APEX 16.9Event APEX 0.49Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3679, 9034, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3679, 9034, 3735

Auto

15.0 29%

Teleop

24.7 48%

Endgame

12.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8732, 9311, 6155

/ 100 compat

Projected

3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8732, 9311, 6155

Auto

1.3 41%

Teleop

1.9 59%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.9pts

Blue projected score3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.9
Score range: -9–61
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 64.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.7Season APEX98.1

15Auto1.3

24.7Teleop1.9

12.2Endgame0

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	34	2
endgame	20	0
foul	0	0
total	76	13

Result

Final score

76 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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