Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
28.79 – 0
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
41 – 19
Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.7 ±12.1
Season APEX 104Event APEX 19.68Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 1.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 7.85Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 3.41Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -27.36Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1745, 5726, 10312
40
/ 100 compatProjected
28.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1745, 5726, 10312
Auto
11.8 44%
Teleop
9.1 34%
Endgame
6.0 22%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 19%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8114, 11169, 3545
15
/ 100 compatProjected
-17.9 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8114, 11169, 3545
Auto
1.9 0%
Teleop
-11.3 63%
Endgame
-8.6 48%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 19%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 0.88
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score28.8pts
Blue projected score-17.9pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 19%, blue 12%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 28.8
- Score range
- -12–41
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
172.7Season APEX179.3
11.8Auto1.9
9.1Teleop-11.3
6Endgame-8.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 16 |
| teleop | 4 | 3 |
| endgame | 1 | 0 |
| foul | 25 | 0 |
| total | 41 | 19 |
Result
Final score
41 – 19
Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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