Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.58 – 72.69

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

9 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.86Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.86Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.86Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.5 ±11.6

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 23.27Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 30.36Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 19.06Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9996, 9995, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9996, 9995, 9997

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

2.6 100%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2158, 6180, 5894

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 6180, 5894

Auto

26.0 39%

Teleop

26.1 40%

Endgame

13.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score2.6pts

Blue projected score72.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.1
Score range: -14–90
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 60 vs event baseline 96.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX144.5

0Auto26

2.6Teleop26.1

0Endgame13.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	0	25
endgame	0	13
foul	0	0
total	9	51

Result

Final score

9 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts