Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.8 – 49.18

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.8 ±11.6

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 1.81Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 37.85Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 6.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4332, 4063, 8573

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4332, 4063, 8573

Auto

19.2 49%

Teleop

6.4 16%

Endgame

13.4 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 9991, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9992, 9991, 9999

Auto

14.8 30%

Teleop

24.6 50%

Endgame

9.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.8pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.4
Score range: 28–67
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 65 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.8Season APEX0

19.2Auto-

6.4Teleop-

13.4Endgame-

47Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	39	2
endgame	6	0
foul	0	0
total	65	0

Result

Final score

65 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 34.2 pts