Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.97 – 149.56

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.6 ±9.1

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -3.13Rank 17Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 85.62Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 152.48Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.8 ±9.8

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 30.11Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 67.01Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 52.44Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4597, 2583, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

235 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4597, 2583, 118

Auto

44.7 19%

Teleop

140.5 61%

Endgame

44.4 19%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8818, 5829, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8818, 5829, 10385

Auto

22.2 15%

Teleop

89.3 61%

Endgame

35.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235pts

Blue projected score149.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.4
Score range: 133–252
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 96.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.6Season APEX346.8

44.7Auto22.2

140.5Teleop89.3

44.4Endgame35.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	39
teleop	116	45
endgame	59	45
foul	0	10
total	226	139

Result

Final score

226 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 pts

Match videos

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