Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.6 – 53.44

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.1 ±12.2

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX -6.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 1.52Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 26.01Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±10.5

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 10.12Rank 17Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 28.62Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 14.7Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8573, 7521, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 7521, 4295

Auto

13.9 72%

Teleop

1.9 10%

Endgame

3.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4597, 2583, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4597, 2583, 10385

Auto

11.5 21%

Teleop

24.1 44%

Endgame

19.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.6pts

Blue projected score53.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 6–68
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 84.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.1Season APEX391

13.9Auto11.5

1.9Teleop24.1

3.5Endgame19.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	12	105
endgame	15	11
foul	5	0
total	45	138

Result

Final score

45 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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