Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.88 – 67.48

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±10.4

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 45.78Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 13.38Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 21.72Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±11.6

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 17.1Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 29.91Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 20.47Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10118, 4295, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10118, 4295, 2158

Auto

29.0 38%

Teleop

28.7 38%

Endgame

18.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 5894, 6180, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5894, 6180, 5427

Auto

21.4 38%

Teleop

20.6 37%

Endgame

13.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.9pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.4
Score range: 49–99
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.4Season APEX188.3

29Auto21.4

28.7Teleop20.6

18.6Endgame13.9

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	20
teleop	31	6
endgame	20	14
foul	0	15
total	91	55

Result

Final score

91 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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