Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.91 – 43.56

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±9.8

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 59.18Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 45.1Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 22.63Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 87.8 ±13.3

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 3.53Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 19.84Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 20.19Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5829, 10385, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5829, 10385, 2158

Auto

20.5 17%

Teleop

76.8 62%

Endgame

26.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8750, 5894, 7521

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8750, 5894, 7521

Auto

17.6 40%

Teleop

25.1 58%

Endgame

0.8 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.9pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 27–144
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 96.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375Season APEX87.8

20.5Auto17.6

76.8Teleop25.1

26.8Endgame0.8

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	98	8
endgame	31	24
foul	0	0
total	153	51

Result

Final score

153 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree