Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.45 – 109.95

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.3 ±11.7

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 24.79Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 21.82Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 44.84Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.6 ±11.1

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 34.53Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 61.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 13.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2158, 7521, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 7521, 4063

Auto

23.4 26%

Teleop

44.0 50%

Endgame

21.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6180, 5829, 8573

/ 100 compat

Projected

110 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6180, 5829, 8573

Auto

24.8 23%

Teleop

51.6 48%

Endgame

31.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score110pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 73–128
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.3Season APEX233.6

23.4Auto24.8

44Teleop51.6

21.2Endgame31.3

0Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	19
teleop	38	28
endgame	5	39
foul	10	0
total	76	86

Result

Final score

76 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree