Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.65 – 52.76

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 81.1 ±14.4

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 11.63Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8591Archangels

Season APEX 11.3Event APEX -1.77Rank 13Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 39.79Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±11.6

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -4.81Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.36Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 24.21Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8573, 8591, 10118

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 8591, 10118

Auto

21.4 41%

Teleop

5.6 11%

Endgame

25.2 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4332, 6180, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4332, 6180, 2158

Auto

24.4 47%

Teleop

18.9 36%

Endgame

9.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.7pts

Blue projected score52.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: 33–70
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 96.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

81.1Season APEX170.3

21.4Auto24.4

5.6Teleop18.9

25.2Endgame9.1

8Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	28
teleop	10	15
endgame	14	9
foul	20	20
total	77	72

Result

Final score

77 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree