Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.21 – 135.58

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±9.9

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 51.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 143.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 8.68Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.1 ±9.8

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 18.22Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 33.09Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 84.27Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5829, 118, 7521

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5829, 118, 7521

Auto

36.3 18%

Teleop

112.9 57%

Endgame

49.4 25%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4295, 5427, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4295, 5427, 2583

Auto

24.3 20%

Teleop

69.3 56%

Endgame

30.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.2pts

Blue projected score135.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.6
Score range: 119–220
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 94.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.3Season APEX461.1

36.3Auto24.3

112.9Teleop69.3

49.4Endgame30.7

75Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	30
teleop	176	12
endgame	65	3
foul	5	5
total	295	50

Result

Final score

295 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree