Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.92 – 38.87

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±11

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 19.07Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 36.71Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 6.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 89.9 ±15.3

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 4.33Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.55Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8591Archangels

Season APEX 11.3Event APEX 0.99Rank 13Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2158, 10385, 8573

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 10385, 8573

Auto

12.9 22%

Teleop

30.6 52%

Endgame

14.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8750, 6180, 8591

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8750, 6180, 8591

Auto

20.7 43%

Teleop

19.9 41%

Endgame

7.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.9pts

Blue projected score38.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.1
Score range: 22–79
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 95.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.2Season APEX89.9

12.9Auto20.7

30.6Teleop19.9

14.9Endgame7.8

18Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	54	11
endgame	27	6
foul	0	5
total	102	41

Result

Final score

102 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree