Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.04 – 34.46

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.6 ±11

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 11.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 14.61Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 45.61Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±14.4

8591Archangels

Season APEX 11.3Event APEX -0.21Rank 13Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -4.9Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 39.57Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8573, 8818, 10118

/ 100 compat

Projected

72 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 8818, 10118

Auto

27.0 36%

Teleop

27.5 36%

Endgame

21.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8591, 4332, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8591, 4332, 10385

Auto

5.1 19%

Teleop

8.7 33%

Endgame

12.6 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72pts

Blue projected score34.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.6
Score range: 17–89
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.6Season APEX165.9

27Auto5.1

27.5Teleop8.7

21.1Endgame12.6

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	14
teleop	21	32
endgame	13	9
foul	5	0
total	66	55

Result

Final score

66 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree