Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.24 – 154.58

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±12.2

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 7.36Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -7.6Rank 17Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 24.48Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±10.4

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 21.67Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 2.72Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 130.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7521, 4597, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7521, 4597, 5427

Auto

3.6 26%

Teleop

6.3 46%

Endgame

3.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2158, 8750, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 8750, 118

Auto

41.5 26%

Teleop

89.0 56%

Endgame

27.5 17%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.2pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 5%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.3
Score range: 8–171
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 90.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.4Season APEX361.5

3.6Auto41.5

6.3Teleop89

3.7Endgame27.5

72Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	55
teleop	21	140
endgame	7	18
foul	5	0
total	51	213

Result

Final score

51 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree