Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.9 – 48.44

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.7 ±9

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 6.49Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 119.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 14.65Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.4 ±11

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 34.95Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 17.83Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -4.34Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8818, 118, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8818, 118, 2158

Auto

32.7 23%

Teleop

76.3 55%

Endgame

30.8 22%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 10385, 5427, 4332

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 5427, 4332

Auto

5.9 15%

Teleop

21.0 53%

Endgame

12.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.9pts

Blue projected score48.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.5
Score range: 33–156
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 85.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.7Season APEX284.4

32.7Auto5.9

76.3Teleop21

30.8Endgame12.6

46Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	18
teleop	112	26
endgame	53	14
foul	5	40
total	219	98

Result

Final score

219 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree