Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.96 – 157.33

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±11.7

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 13.38Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -0.74Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 51.32Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.8 ±13.1

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 84.78Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8591Archangels

Season APEX 11.3Event APEX 7.25Rank 13Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 65.3Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4295, 8750, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4295, 8750, 10385

Auto

18.4 29%

Teleop

35.9 57%

Endgame

9.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2583, 8591, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2583, 8591, 5829

Auto

26.7 17%

Teleop

78.5 50%

Endgame

52.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64pts

Blue projected score157.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.4
Score range: 46–175
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.4Season APEX441.8

18.4Auto26.7

35.9Teleop78.5

9Endgame52.5

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	38	52
endgame	12	51
foul	0	0
total	71	117

Result

Final score

71 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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