Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.3 – 90.26

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.3 ±11.6

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 0.7Rank 17Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 27.43Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 16.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.2 ±11.2

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 50.54Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 40.51Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -0.79Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4597, 4295, 8573

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4597, 4295, 8573

Auto

16.8 38%

Teleop

14.8 33%

Endgame

12.8 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5829, 10118, 8750

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5829, 10118, 8750

Auto

35.8 37%

Teleop

45.9 48%

Endgame

14.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.3pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 29–105
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 85.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.3Season APEX274.2

16.8Auto35.8

14.8Teleop45.9

12.8Endgame14.3

9Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	33
teleop	4	79
endgame	5	16
foul	0	0
total	17	128

Result

Final score

17 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree