Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.86 – 24.2

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177 ±12.2

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 31.34Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 8.88Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 24.64Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.6 ±11.6

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -4.9Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 20.62Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 8.48Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 7521, 6180

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 7521, 6180

Auto

19.7 34%

Teleop

34.8 61%

Endgame

3.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4332, 5427, 5894

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4332, 5427, 5894

Auto

5.0 45%

Teleop

-2.4 0%

Endgame

8.4 76%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score24.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 8–81
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 86.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177Season APEX194.6

19.7Auto5

34.8Teleop-2.4

3Endgame8.4

83Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	11
teleop	53	5
endgame	24	11
foul	0	10
total	92	37

Result

Final score

92 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree