Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.93 – 98.39

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.2 ±14.4

8591Archangels

Season APEX 11.3Event APEX -0.73Rank 13Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 15.56Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 1.1Rank 17Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±9.8

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 12.88Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 32.2Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 53.31Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8591, 2158, 4597

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8591, 2158, 4597

Auto

11.8 50%

Teleop

6.1 26%

Endgame

5.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 8818, 4295, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8818, 4295, 5829

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

45.0 46%

Endgame

34.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.9pts

Blue projected score98.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 4%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.5
Score range: 0–114
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.2Season APEX318

11.8Auto19.3

6.1Teleop45

5.5Endgame34.4

1Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	5	52
endgame	5	13
foul	0	0
total	22	78

Result

Final score

22 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree