Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.33 – 174.88

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.4 ±11

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -11.26Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 2.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 111.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.3 ±9.8

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 41.04Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 73.77Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 60.07Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8750, 8573, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8750, 8573, 118

Auto

23.9 23%

Teleop

57.3 54%

Endgame

24.0 23%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10118, 2583, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10118, 2583, 4063

Auto

45.4 26%

Teleop

90.1 51%

Endgame

40.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.3pts

Blue projected score174.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.5
Score range: 87–190
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 84.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.4Season APEX420.3

23.9Auto45.4

57.3Teleop90.1

24Endgame40.5

64Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	22
teleop	76	63
endgame	35	58
foul	0	0
total	160	143

Result

Final score

160 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 44.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree