Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.95 – 70.33

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.7 ±9.7

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 25.69Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 11.54Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 112.72Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.9 ±10.5

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -11.44Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 46.39Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 35.38Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 5894, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 5894, 118

Auto

38.4 26%

Teleop

85.5 58%

Endgame

23.2 16%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4332, 5829, 10118

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4332, 5829, 10118

Auto

30.4 43%

Teleop

25.6 36%

Endgame

15.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150pts

Blue projected score70.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.6
Score range: 55–165
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 83.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.7Season APEX279.9

38.4Auto30.4

85.5Teleop25.6

23.2Endgame15

71Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	37
teleop	91	45
endgame	35	31
foul	20	0
total	166	113

Result

Final score

166 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree