Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.77 – 74.2

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.3 ±11.6

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 8.51Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 13.75Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.51Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.4 ±10.5

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 28.09Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 4.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 41.43Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5894, 8818, 6180

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5894, 8818, 6180

Auto

16.6 58%

Teleop

7.5 26%

Endgame

4.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5427, 8573, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5427, 8573, 5829

Auto

20.4 29%

Teleop

29.0 42%

Endgame

19.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.8pts

Blue projected score74.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.4
Score range: 19–89
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 84.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.3Season APEX324.4

16.6Auto20.4

7.5Teleop29

4.5Endgame19.8

179Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	21	46
endgame	13	33
foul	0	5
total	59	94

Result

Final score

59 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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