Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.85 – 50.65

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.7 ±12.9

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 33.72Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 103.5Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8591Archangels

Season APEX 11.3Event APEX -10.37Rank 13Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±12.2

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 64.58Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -5.98Rank 18Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -7.95Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4295, 118, 8591

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4295, 118, 8591

Auto

33.0 27%

Teleop

56.2 46%

Endgame

33.1 27%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 4063, 4332, 8750

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4063, 4332, 8750

Auto

23.9 42%

Teleop

26.9 48%

Endgame

5.6 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.9pts

Blue projected score50.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.2
Score range: 36–142
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 82.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.7Season APEX199.5

33Auto23.9

56.2Teleop26.9

33.1Endgame5.6

54Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	66	29
endgame	81	0
foul	0	0
total	165	49

Result

Final score

165 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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