Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.41 – 128.26

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 79.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±11.2

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX -0.88Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 52.23Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 5.06Rank 15Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.1 ±11

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 35.86Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 64.18Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 28.22Rank 17Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2158, 2583, 7521

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2158, 2583, 7521

Auto

14.4 27%

Teleop

29.3 55%

Endgame

9.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10385, 10118, 4597

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 10118, 4597

Auto

35.8 28%

Teleop

79.8 62%

Endgame

13.8 11%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.8
Score range: 41–143
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 81.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.5Season APEX195.1

14.4Auto35.8

29.3Teleop79.8

9.5Endgame13.8

102Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	16
teleop	83	19
endgame	31	6
foul	0	0
total	128	41

Result

Final score

128 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 79.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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