Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.11 – 131.79

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 84.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.4 ±12.2

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 52.48Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 32.26Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 24.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±11

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 32.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 37.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 62.66Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5892, 3545, 6243

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5892, 3545, 6243

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

69.9 64%

Endgame

26.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2587, 2789, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2587, 2789, 9506

Auto

29.9 23%

Teleop

56.4 44%

Endgame

42.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score131.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.7
Score range: 80–161
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.4Season APEX262.9

13.3Auto29.9

69.9Teleop56.4

26.4Endgame42.7

29Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	42
teleop	85	130
endgame	68	45
foul	20	0
total	193	217

Result

Final score

193 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 84.6 pts

Match videos

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