Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.71 – 97.08

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.1 ±12.2

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 17.76Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 18.59Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 24.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±11.6

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 21.43Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 26.79Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 48.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9577, 4076, 8750

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 4076, 8750

Auto

22.6 39%

Teleop

18.9 33%

Endgame

15.8 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6180, 5103, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6180, 5103, 1255

Auto

22.3 23%

Teleop

38.5 40%

Endgame

35.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.7pts

Blue projected score97.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 31–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.1Season APEX171.3

22.6Auto22.3

18.9Teleop38.5

15.8Endgame35.5

84Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	32
teleop	34	86
endgame	17	21
foul	0	0
total	76	139

Result

Final score

76 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Match videos

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