Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.27 – 118.47

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.7 ±11.6

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 82.64Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 82.7Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 11.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±11

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 27.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 32.82Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 57.86Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 436, 6377, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 6377, 11309

Auto

35.9 20%

Teleop

91.2 51%

Endgame

50.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2587, 2789, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2587, 2789, 9506

Auto

28.0 24%

Teleop

52.2 45%

Endgame

34.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.3pts

Blue projected score118.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.8
Score range: 89–206
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.7Season APEX262.9

35.9Auto28

91.2Teleop52.2

50.2Endgame34.7

36Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	40
teleop	138	84
endgame	43	73
foul	5	0
total	237	197

Result

Final score

237 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Match videos

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