Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.64 – 108.49

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.8 ±9.9

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 2.16Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 107.39Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 175.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.4 ±12.2

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 51.78Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 31.84Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 24.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8573, 5572, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 5572, 2583

Auto

76.0 27%

Teleop

159.6 57%

Endgame

46.8 17%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5892, 3545, 6243

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5892, 3545, 6243

Auto

13.6 12%

Teleop

69.6 64%

Endgame

25.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score284.6pts

Blue projected score108.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.1
Score range: 79–314
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.8Season APEX198.4

76Auto13.6

159.6Teleop69.6

46.8Endgame25.9

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	15
teleop	127	80
endgame	62	31
foul	20	0
total	311	126

Result

Final score

311 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Match videos

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